A simulation model using environmental cues to predict phenomenologies of winter and summer annuals in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

TitleA simulation model using environmental cues to predict phenomenologies of winter and summer annuals in the northern Chihuahuan Desert
Publication TypeConference Proceedings
Year of Publication1988
AuthorsBachelet D., Wondzell S.M, Reynolds J.F.
EditorMarani A.(ed.)
Conference NameAdvances in Environmental Modelling
Pagination235-260
Date Published1988
Accession NumberJRN00066
Call Number00011
Keywordsabstract, abstracts, annual plant,germination, annual plant,phenology, conference, conference proceedings, conferences, germination,annual plant, model,annual plant phenology, phenology,annual plant, proceeding, proceedings
AbstractThe goal of this study was to quantify the controls of environmental cues on the phenological patterns of northern Chihuahuan Desert annuals. Our specific objectives were to: 1) identify primary environmental cues which result in the germination of summer and winter annuals, 2) quantify the required periods of adequate temperature and soil moisture following germination which insure successful seed set, and 3) incorporate these data into a phenology model (PHENANN) in order to examine life history patterns of Chihuahuan Desert annuals in response to long-term climate records. This work is an extension of Freas and Kemp (1983) and Kemp (1983). Data from Kemp (1983) were used to develop the model which was validated using an independent data set from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Jornada site. Results of the validation indicate that annual plant phenologies in this region can be reasonably predicted based on cues of rainfall, soil moisture, and temperature. In a long-term simulation based on climatic records from 1892 - 1981, summer annuals germinated 8 out of 10 years and succesfully completed their life cycles 91% of the time; winter annuals germinated 6 out of 10 years and successfully completed their life cycles about 71% of the time. Limitations of the model are discussed.
Custom 1Elsevier, Amsterdam