|Title||Simulated distribution of an invasive grass, Lehmann lovegrass, in the Chihuahuan Desert under future climate scenarios|
|Publication Type||Conference Paper|
|Year of Publication||2015|
|Authors||Yao J, Peters DC|
|Conference Name||100th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America|
|Conference Location||Baltimore, MD|
|ARIS Log Number||319277|
ackground/Question/Methods Lehmann lovegrass (Eragrostis lehmanniana), a perennial grass introduced to the Southwest US in the 1930s from South Africa, has had a limited distribution in the Chihuahuan Desert while it has dominated many grassland sites in the Sonoran Desert. Previous observational studies and our site-based model simulations suggest that climate (precipitation and temperature) is the main driver for the difference in the current species’ distributions in the two Southwest deserts. Our goal was to predict the distribution of Lehmann lovegrass throughout the Chihuahuan Desert under current climate conditions and future climate scenarios. We used the SOILWAT simulation model to simulate Lehman lovegrass seedling establishment, with SSURGO data as input for soil related variables. The 1971-2000 mean precipitation and temperature from PRISM were used for the current climate conditions, and these data were adjusted based on the projected changes in National Climate Assessment for Southwest US to simulate future climate scenarios.